世界和平

August 20, 2007

[News] A Chinese Century? Maybe It’s the Next One

By LESTER THUROW
Published: August 19, 2007

CHINA claims that its economy is growing at 10 to 11 percent a year, and China’s official analysts say that their nation will catch up with the United States long before the 22nd century arrives. Don’t believe it.

First, let’s deal with the implausibility of the official Chinese statistics. Mathematically, if the overall economy were to grow 10 percent annually, and the 70 percent of the economy that is based in rural areas were not growing (as stated by the Chinese government), the economy in China’s cities would have to be growing by 33 percent a year. The urban economy is growing rapidly, but not at a 33 percent pace.

Furthermore, Chinese statistics conflict with those of Hong Kong, the semiautonomous territory that serves as the financial capital of much of southern China. In 2001, Hong Kong had a recession, which is to say that it reported that its gross domestic product fell. Guangdong, the adjacent Chinese province, has a population of around 200 million. In 2001, it reported that its G.D.P. grew by 10 percent. What are the chances that both of those numbers are correct? Very slim.

Economic growth rates can be inferred from electricity consumption. In every country in the world, electricity use has generally grown faster than the G.D.P. Electricity is necessary for nearly all productive activities, and because of inefficiencies, consumption of electricity has generally outstripped economic growth. Rising energy costs have resulted in more efficient use of electricity, but especially in the developing world, economic growth has still generally lagged growth in electricity.

But if China’s official numbers are to be believed, there are provinces in China where the G.D.P. has been growing faster than energy use. That is unlikely, since the central government’s statistics also say that energy use per unit of G.D.P. is going up — not down, as claimed in provincial G.D.P. statistics.

Among the world’s 12 most rapidly growing economies over the last 10 years, the G.D.P. has grown only 45 percent as fast as electricity consumption. In the early 1970s, Japan was shutting down its electricity-guzzling aluminum industry. During this period, the G.D.P. grew 60 percent as fast as electricity consumption, the highest recorded level among industrialized nations.
Using those numbers as a guide, if we consider China’s actual electrical use, which is relatively easy to measure, and do a little math, we come up with this estimate: The G.D.P. in China has been growing somewhere between 4.5 percent (using the average for a rapidly growing country) to 6 percent a year (using the highest rate for Japan), not at the 10 percent rate claimed in official statistics.

The official statistic for China’s overall growth rate is best regarded as an approximate growth rate of the economy of its cities.

China also officially claims that it will catch up with the United States and become the world’s largest economy well before the 22nd century arrives.

There is an equally simple reason that neither of these predictions is likely to be realized. It simply takes more than 100 years for a large, less economically developed country to catch up with the world leader in per capita income. One need look only at the history of the United States, which had a much higher growth rate than Britain in the 19th century, yet did not catch up until World War I. Or consider Japan and the United States. Some 150 years after Japan started to modernize during the Meiji restoration, the country’s per capita G.D.P. is still only 80 percent of that of the United States in terms of purchasing power parity — although, in nominal terms, it has caught up.

The United States is not standing still. In fact, its per capita income grew faster than nearly all other big countries from 1990 to 2007. Europe’s per capita income fell from 85 percent of that of the United States in 1990 to 66 percent in 2007, according to International Monetary Fund statistics.

So let’s say that the inflation-adjusted growth rate for China is 4 percent a year. This is optimistic, because China will certainly have some bad years in the next century. Every country does — remember the Great Depression in the United States. A 4 percent rate is faster than any big country has ever grown for 100 years. But assume that China can do it. Assume, too, that America grows at the 3 percent rate it has averaged for the last 15 years.

Now project the two growth rates forward: the inflation-adjusted per-capita G.D.P. of China would be less than $40,000 in 2100, versus almost $650,000 in the United States. That’s because China starts at $1,000 per capita and the United States at $43,000. If, in 2100, China has four times as many people as the United States, as it does now, China would still not have a total G.D.P. equal to America’s.

But it is unlikely to have four times as many people. It is always a mistake to project population growth rates for a century, but let’s do it anyway: With a one-child policy and a sex ratio that favors boys (many men won’t find wives) — China should experience a decline in population in the 21st century. Yet let’s assume for a moment that China’s population remains constant, at 1.3 billion. If immigration to the United States continued at the current rate, America’s population would rise. If the population grew at 1 percent a year, as it has recently, it would more than double by 2100, reducing the enormous population gap between the two countries. Are these projections likely to be realized? Who knows?

What is clear is that China is unlikely to surpass the United States in G.D.P. in absolute or relative terms anytime soon.

There may be a Chinese century, but it will be the 22nd century — not the 21st.
Lester Thurow is a professor of management and economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is also on the board of Taiwan Semiconductor, which does business in mainland China.

August 15, 2007

First Fire Alarm

就在幾分鐘前剛從冷颼颼的森林中進房間，因為我經歷了人生中的第一次火災警報！

是的，人生第一次！以前只有在防空演習或是大樓消防設備檢查時聽過火災警報器在響。這一次一聽到，我趕緊看看我的電湯匙，確認是處於未插電的狀態後，開門看看，怎麼沒有人有反應~~ 沒多久，住對面二年級的宿舍長(黑女孩)說我們必須到外面去等。所以我就回房間拿了皮包跟鑰匙往外走。由於我是最後一間，所以走到靠近門口的時候，發現走廊上果然煙霧瀰漫，而且參雜著很香的食物味道，我想應該是有人煮東西煮出太多煙了！

不到三分鐘，校警抵達。不到十分鐘，wellsely地區的消防車抵達。此時，我後悔忘記帶兩樣東西，外套跟相機。雖然白天出太陽還蠻熱，不過由於宿舍區是在森林中，所以晚上還蠻冷(我到現在還沒開過冷氣)。

果不其然，有手機的人開始拿起來拍照，畢竟這是大家住宿舍的第一次警報，總是要紀念一下。接著有個同學就開始吆或大家到消防車前照相，當然不分國籍，不分男女，大家都照了相。只不過是用相機拍的，所以我想每一個的臉應該都是黑的(用手機照的)。

August 11, 2007

灰狗(Greyhound)之旅

在NY吃喝玩樂並混了三個禮拜後，終於要出發前往位於Boston的學校-Babson College。(在Botont近郊，Wellesley地區)

早在出發前，有人提到坐China Town Bus會便宜很多(USD 15)，可是我考慮到我的行李以及第一次在美國走長途公路旅程，所以還是選擇了灰狗(Greyhound)。另外，在上網買票時，發現灰狗有一站到Newton(非Boston市區，離學校很近-Taxi約USD17)，所以就確定坐灰狗了！

上網訂票的手續還蠻簡單的，而且早訂有優惠。像我提早三天訂優惠USD5，所以NY到BOS要價USD30+Service Charge USD4。此外，我選擇提早一天去42nd st.的port authority bus terminal拿票，避免拿著一堆行李然後東奔西跑，拿完票也順便勘查了一下地形。

由於前一天已經把所有行李打包(超累，在台灣時還有老婆幫忙，現在自己動手才知道把東西塞進行李箱真不容易)，所以早上可以悠閒的吃早餐。當我提議要跟她照相，她說"現在嗎?不行不行，我要dress up!"，等了一會兒，過然化了妝問我有沒有好一點，我當然說"you looks great!"。然後再跟HomeMa聊了一下就差不多要8:30了！

離開時，真的很感謝HomeMa的照顧，她一再地說下次有機會到NY，一定要再去拜訪她!接著我就坐車到port authority bus terminal，到的時候才9:00。然後我就到行李區check-in行李，當然大行李箱一量88lb，超重三十幾磅，只好乖乖多付USD20的超重費。(後來才知道NY到BOS之間行李是不用check-in的，不過我想那麼重還沒付錢，可能會被bus旁的搬行李小弟"角"到不行)

跟坐飛機還蠻像，拿著票到登車口(Gate)，唯一不同是要一直提著自己的行李，除非再多付錢讓他們托運。我買的票是要轉車的，所以排的Gate跟往Boston是不一樣的！但是我越想越不對，他中間只留15分鐘讓我換車，如果錯過了怎麼辦?後來看到班表上轉車點的下一班要再等2~3小時....

正當我要去問個清楚時，發現有一班車早一個小時開，所以趕緊去排，想說如果提早到就沒問題了！心裡正在偷笑時，收票員說"滿了！".......... 只好乖乖等原來那班！

一路上沒啥人！(我想應該是大家都想坐直達車不想轉車)所以我就一個人坐兩個位置。等我昏睡醒來時已經快一點了，卻還沒到轉車點，因為我發現我們正現在塞車的車陣中。等到達轉車點時，我的車早已經走了！我只好提著超重的行李到櫃臺問，結果他們說再過20分鐘有一班車要到Newton，只是中間會再多轉一站。(我心想：灰狗到底在搞什麼，不準時外連schedule都亂七八糟，無緣無故冒出一台車有到，不過也好我才不用再等2個多小時等schedule上的下一班車

所以我就先進車站買個吃的，結果還在等的時候，聽到廣播說往Newton的車即將要開了。ㄎㄠ\....... 我又不能放棄食物而去，只好乾著急！好不容易拿到加蛋跟火腿的Begal，就急忙衝到外面，結果大家都還只是在排隊嘛！

在又坐了兩個多小時後，終於到Newton-riverside車站，完成我的第一次灰狗之旅。然後坐了Taxi到學校。先到public safty拿鑰匙，因為我要求提早一天報到。

Babson的校園真是沒話說，就跟森林度假村一樣，尤其宿舍區就是被森林給包圍！

到了房間之後，發現有一點小亂，不過也不髒就是了。(比起其他人算是不錯的了！)先跟另一位已經到一個禮拜的同學走40分鐘到最近的中國餐廳之晚餐，然後回來整理東西，結束四處奔波的一天。

整理完的房間。

[轉貼]美國次級房貸危機

以紐約股市為首的全球股市再度出現一波劇烈動盪，其最主要的導火線就是美國次級房貸危機惡化，使美國房市低迷不振。連帶地衝擊美國經濟，而可能對全球經濟產生負面的連鎖效應。
所謂次級房貸就是抵押貸款市場中的次優等抵押貸款，其與一般房貸最主要的不同點在於，這種貸款是提供給那些信用程度較差，及還款能力比較弱的購屋者，其利率也比一般抵押貸款高二至三個百分點。
美國不少金融機構在這波美國房市景氣擴張的過程中，大幅承作次級房貸，使次級房貸的規模快速膨脹。而在美國房市景氣逆轉，聯準會（Fed）為了抑制通膨壓力持續升息，導致貸款者還款壓力大增，也造成次級房貸違約率大幅攀升，對美國金融市場產生相關的負面效應，一些體質比較不健全，以經營次級房貸為主的金融業者如新世紀金融公司等，被迫停止業務，甚至倒閉。
同時以次級房貸為投資標的的共同基金、避險基金、以至大型銀行與保險公司，都將面臨資產大幅損失的風險。華爾街投資銀行貝爾斯登旗下的兩檔避險基金，即是因為投資次級房貸，而出現嚴重虧損。其中一檔基金的資產已一無所剩，另一檔基金的價值也大幅縮水至原有規模的九％。
在美國次級房貸問題尚未完全解決，及房市還未復甦之前，美國股市以至全球股市，未來仍有可能出現大幅波動的走勢。
而美國房地產業界專家預估，美國房市最早也要到二○○九年才會復甦。（編譯王錦時）